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What's Worrying Mitt Romney? (The Note)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziBq-SNcvGI

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WTS Vlog 3 – Video

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Does defiant Gingrich help or hurt GOP?

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Gingrich vows to continue campaign to Republican convention

Gingrich: This is a two person race

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Gingrich vows to stay in race up to the Republican convention Former House speaker says GOP nomination contest between him, Mitt Romney Gingrich says campaign will be a battle of “people power” against “money power”

Orlando, Florida (CNN) — After a bruising 10 days in Florida, Newt Gingrich wasn't conceding anything to Mitt Romney following his devastating, momentum-shifting loss in the state's primary.

Instead, Gingrich appeared to be more emboldened to be the conservative alternative to Romney, as the campaign for the Republican nomination enters a stretch of low-stakes contests in February.

In a speech Tuesday night, when it was clear that Romney had routed the former House speaker, Gingrich didn't congratulate his opponent; he didn't even utter his name. Nor did he make the traditional congratulatory phone call to Romney after it became clear he wouldn't be able to follow his win in South Carolina with another in Florida.

Instead, he vowed to continue his campaign all the way to the Republican convention, speaking behind a podium with a sign that read “46 states to go,” to drive home the point to those who question his campaign's viability that he's staying in the race.

“I just want to reassure them tonight, we are going to contest every place, and we are going to win, and we will be in Tampa as the nominee in August,” he said of the “elite media” and the Republican establishment who fear that Gingrich's attacks on Romney could produce a fractured party going into the general election against President Barack Obama.

“It is now clear that this will be a two-person race between the conservative leader, Newt Gingrich, and the Massachusetts moderate,” he said of Romney.

That was dialing it back a bit from the vitriol he had expressed for his opponent in previous days. Reacting to damaging words from Romney and attack ads by groups supporting Romney, Gingrich had questioned Romney's honesty — at various times referring to his opponent as “fundamentally dishonest,” Romney's attacks as “breathtakingly dishonest,” and his answers in two strong debate performances as “blatantly dishonest.”

So the race for the Republican nomination now appears to be a grudge match between the two.

“There is bad blood,” said CNN contributor and RedState blogger Erick Erickson.

“I think it's about two guys who don't like each other, but it's also about a Republican base who's sitting back saying we're talking about Mitt and Newt not ironically as the potential nominee, and people aren't excited about those. So you've got these underlying people who aren't really excited about either one, both of them trying to get them excited about them. And they don't particularly like each other either. ”

Despite his convincing win in South Carolina, Gingrich entered Florida with a significant handicap. He surged into contention in November and December, which didn't give him enough time to build a strong organization in Florida, unlike Romney, who started building his last summer.

Gingrich had not even stepped on stage to deliver his victory speech in South Carolina before aides were already playing up Romney's advantage in Florida.

By then, early voting in Florida was under way. Over 100,000 ballots had already been cast before Gingrich claimed South Carolina, and thousands more absentee ballots were on their way back to Tallahassee.

Romney had apparently learned his lesson from allowing Gingrich's strong debating skills to put him on his heels in South Carolina. He and his surrogates, like John McCain, the party's 2008 nominee, and political action committees that supported Romney, went on the attack — questioning Gingrich's ethics, his stability and his electability against Obama.

Romney's deep pockets and those of the super PACs supporting him also outspent Gingrich and his supporters 5-1 on television ads in a diverse state with 10 media markets, which shaped voters' view of Gingrich.

But it also fueled Gingrich's anger toward the attacks directed at him, which Campaign Media Analysis Group determined to be the most negative political campaign ever. CMAG's analysis determined that 92% of ads airing in Florida over the past week were negative.

In his speech on Tuesday, Gingrich vowed that his campaign would be a battle of “people power” against “money power.”

Gingrich hopes to parlay conservatives' mistrust of Romney's convictions to the nomination, but he still faces competition for the conservative vote from former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who also shows no signs of getting out of the race.

The Gingrich campaign is tempering expectations for contests in Nevada and Michigan — Romney is favored to win both — and largely banking on contests in March in Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama.

He flew overnight to Nevada so he can speak at a rally in Reno on Wednesday afternoon. He is expected to campaign in the state until voters caucus on Saturday.

Santorum decided early on that he couldn't compete in Florida's media wars and instead decided to draw a battle line in Nevada. The state's caucus on Saturday is similar to that in Iowa, where he scored a surprising win in the opening contest of the campaign.

For his part, Santorum congratulated Romney for his win on Tuesday but then condemned the ugly tone of the Florida race, encouraging his opponents not to engage in a “mud wrestling” match in which everyone gets dirty.

Despite fears that a Gingrich-Romney grudge match would produce a damaged candidate in the fall, at least one conservative thinks a tough primary campaign will produce a better candidate.

Drawing a parallel to the 2008 Democratic race, in which Obama and Hillary Clinton contested the race deep into the primaries, Ralph Reed said that Obama emerged “a tougher, a better and a more disciplined candidate in the general (election) because of her.

Reed also found parallels in Republican contests.

“We've all seen this movie before. This is a recurrent drama within the Republican Party that goes all the way back to the Eisenhower-Taft battle at the convention in '52. It reaches its crescendo with Goldwater-Rockefeller. Then it's replayed again with Reagan and Ford in '76. They go all the way to the convention,” he said.

“The fact is, there's nothing but good out of a muscular, competitive, hard-fought primary, as long as you can reconcile at the convention.”

View original post here:
Gingrich defiant, no concession call

Gingrich: This is a two person race

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Gingrich vows to stay in race up to the Republican convention Former House speaker says GOP nomination contest between him, Mitt Romney Gingrich says campaign will be a battle of “people power” against “money power”

Orlando, Florida (CNN) — After a bruising 10 days in Florida, Newt Gingrich wasn't conceding anything to Mitt Romney following his devastating, momentum-shifting loss in the state's primary.

Instead, Gingrich appeared to be more emboldened to be the conservative alternative to Romney, as the campaign for the Republican nomination enters a stretch of low-stakes contests in February.

In a speech Tuesday night, when it was clear that Romney had routed the former House speaker, Gingrich didn't congratulate his opponent; he didn't even utter his name. Nor did he make the traditional congratulatory phone call to Romney after it became clear he wouldn't be able to follow his win in South Carolina with another in Florida.

Instead, he vowed to continue his campaign all the way to the Republican convention, speaking behind a podium with a sign that read “46 states to go,” to drive home the point to those who question his campaign's viability that he's staying in the race.

“I just want to reassure them tonight, we are going to contest every place, and we are going to win, and we will be in Tampa as the nominee in August,” he said of the “elite media” and the Republican establishment who fear that Gingrich's attacks on Romney could produce a fractured party going into the general election against President Barack Obama.

“It is now clear that this will be a two-person race between the conservative leader, Newt Gingrich, and the Massachusetts moderate,” he said of Romney.

That was dialing it back a bit from the vitriol he had expressed for his opponent in previous days. Reacting to damaging words from Romney and attack ads by groups supporting Romney, Gingrich had questioned Romney's honesty — at various times referring to his opponent as “fundamentally dishonest,” Romney's attacks as “breathtakingly dishonest,” and his answers in two strong debate performances as “blatantly dishonest.”

So the race for the Republican nomination now appears to be a grudge match between the two.

“There is bad blood,” said CNN contributor and RedState blogger Erick Erickson.

“I think it's about two guys who don't like each other, but it's also about a Republican base who's sitting back saying we're talking about Mitt and Newt not ironically as the potential nominee, and people aren't excited about those. So you've got these underlying people who aren't really excited about either one, both of them trying to get them excited about them. And they don't particularly like each other either. ”

Despite his convincing win in South Carolina, Gingrich entered Florida with a significant handicap. He surged into contention in November and December, which didn't give him enough time to build a strong organization in Florida, unlike Romney, who started building his last summer.

Gingrich had not even stepped on stage to deliver his victory speech in South Carolina before aides were already playing up Romney's advantage in Florida.

By then, early voting in Florida was under way. Over 100,000 ballots had already been cast before Gingrich claimed South Carolina, and thousands more absentee ballots were on their way back to Tallahassee.

Romney had apparently learned his lesson from allowing Gingrich's strong debating skills to put him on his heels in South Carolina. He and his surrogates, like John McCain, the party's 2008 nominee, and political action committees that supported Romney, went on the attack — questioning Gingrich's ethics, his stability and his electability against Obama.

Romney's deep pockets and those of the super PACs supporting him also outspent Gingrich and his supporters 5-1 on television ads in a diverse state with 10 media markets, which shaped voters' view of Gingrich.

But it also fueled Gingrich's anger toward the attacks directed at him, which Campaign Media Analysis Group determined to be the most negative political campaign ever. CMAG's analysis determined that 92% of ads airing in Florida over the past week were negative.

In his speech on Tuesday, Gingrich vowed that his campaign would be a battle of “people power” against “money power.”

Gingrich hopes to parlay conservatives' mistrust of Romney's convictions to the nomination, but he still faces competition for the conservative vote from former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who also shows no signs of getting out of the race.

The Gingrich campaign is tempering expectations for contests in Nevada and Michigan — Romney is favored to win both — and largely banking on contests in March in Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama.

He flew overnight to Nevada so he can speak at a rally in Reno on Wednesday afternoon. He is expected to campaign in the state until voters caucus on Saturday.

Santorum decided early on that he couldn't compete in Florida's media wars and instead decided to draw a battle line in Nevada. The state's caucus on Saturday is similar to that in Iowa, where he scored a surprising win in the opening contest of the campaign.

For his part, Santorum congratulated Romney for his win on Tuesday but then condemned the ugly tone of the Florida race, encouraging his opponents not to engage in a “mud wrestling” match in which everyone gets dirty.

Despite fears that a Gingrich-Romney grudge match would produce a damaged candidate in the fall, at least one conservative thinks a tough primary campaign will produce a better candidate.

Drawing a parallel to the 2008 Democratic race, in which Obama and Hillary Clinton contested the race deep into the primaries, Ralph Reed said that Obama emerged “a tougher, a better and a more disciplined candidate in the general (election) because of her.

Reed also found parallels in Republican contests.

“We've all seen this movie before. This is a recurrent drama within the Republican Party that goes all the way back to the Eisenhower-Taft battle at the convention in '52. It reaches its crescendo with Goldwater-Rockefeller. Then it's replayed again with Reagan and Ford in '76. They go all the way to the convention,” he said.

“The fact is, there's nothing but good out of a muscular, competitive, hard-fought primary, as long as you can reconcile at the convention.”

View post:
Does defiant Gingrich help or hurt GOP's chances?

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As Ohio starts early voting today, pros size up how GOP presidential primary might play out

Now it's up to the voters.

A whirlwind day of appearances across Florida on Monday marked the end to a slashingly negative, nine-day campaign that could propel Mitt Romney to the Republican nomination or keep Newt Gingrich's hopes alive.

Neither side has let up. Gingrich and Romney raced from event to event, maintained their harsh attacks, and deployed grassroots campaign organizations to turn out voters on Tuesday.

The final frenzy comes on the heels of a campaign that has generated intense interest among voters. As of Monday, 632,513 Florida Republicans, or 16 percent of those registered, had cast absentee ballots or gone to early voting sites. The state party said that's 100,000 more than in 2008 — a 19 percent increase even though Republican registration is up just 6 percent in the last four years.

“People can sense that Florida's going to be important,” said Justin Sayfie, a Fort Lauderdale lawyer and co-chairman of Romney's Florida campaign. He was a top aide to former Gov. Jeb Bush and publishes the Sayfie Review political news website.

Because Florida is a big state, with a diverse population that's voting early, it's “absolutely critical in the nomination race,” said Nicol Rae, a political scientist at Florida International University.

In the final 72 hours of the campaign, Gingrich made 14 stops and Romney eight — all in an attempt to get Florida's most valuable political commodity: free exposure on local television news shows. Each started in Jacksonville and fanned across Republican strongholds in northern and central Florida.

Florida is a mega-state with 10 media markets and more Republicans than the combined total of the three earlier states on the presidential nominating calendar — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. That means in-person campaigning isn't enough to win. Television ads and news coverage are critical, Sayfie said.

With Rick Santorum and Ron Paul low in the polls, low in organization and low on money, neither has mounted a major effort in Florida as the race has evolved into a two-man contest.

Neither Romney nor Gingrich let up on the negativity. Romney repeated his charges that voters are turning away from Gingrich because of his troubles as House speaker in the 1990s and his more recent role as an adviser to mortgage giant Freddie Mac, which Romney has blamed in part for the nation's housing crisis.

Gingrich slammed Romney as a liberal. “Why would anybody in the establishment think that a Massachusetts moderate, which is a liberal by Republican standards, pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase, pro-gay rights, why would they think he's going to be able to debate Barack Obama?”

Political scientist Kathryn DePalo at Florida International University said Gingrich can be expected to do well with more conservative voters in north Florida and the Panhandle and Romney should do well in South Florida, home to more moderate Republicans.

That makes central Florida's Interstate 4 corridor pivotal. “If Romney wins big there, he wins the state big. If Gingrich can make some inroads there, the outcome will probably be a little closer.”

The campaign started on Jan. 22, the day after Gingrich won the South Carolina primary. It ended with the latest polling showing Romney had a 43 percent to 29 percent lead over Gingrich. The Quinnipiac University poll of Florida Republican likely voters released on Monday showed Paul and Santorum each had 11 percent. Neither was in Florida on Monday.

Quinnipiac found Romney leading Gingrich across key Republican voting blocs: conservatives, white evangelical Christians, and tea party members.

And Gingrich is feeling the effect of the withering attacks from Romney and his surrogates. His unfavorable shot up to 42 percent on Monday. On Friday, it was 28 percent.

Still, Gingrich has a glimmer of hope. Though only 7 percent were undecided, 24 percent of voters surveyed said they might change their minds.

Local volunteers are working to shore up support for their candidates.

County Commissioner Steven Abrams, the Palm Beach County chairman of Gingrich's campaign, said the get-out-the-vote efforts are coming down to the kind of traditional techniques used in local elections, such as street-corner sign waving and phone calls to voters.

The appeals will continue throughout Tuesday. “To let up before the polls close is like walking the last 10 feet of a hundred-yard dash,” Abrams said.

Continued here:
Florida's GOP campaign ends in frenzy

There’s been one constant thus far in the remarkably volatile Republican contest: Each time Newt Gingrich rides a wave of anti-establishment energy to the front of the field, he hits a wall as the attacks on him mount and voters start sounding out the words “President Gingrich.” It seems to be a self-correcting equation for Republicans, who seem to continually elevate Gingrich the insurgent, only to demote Gingrich the frontrunner.

Just a week ago, the former speaker, riding high from his South Carolina win, had pulled iinto the lead in the Florida polls. But Monday, he'd fallen 20 points behind Romney.

After an initial burst of momentum when he entered the race, Gingrich quickly faded  before rocketing to the front of the field again at the end of November, when his debate performances electrified the many Republicans who had yet to succumb to the non-phenomenon the Onion memorably dubbed “Romneymania,” On December 1, Gingrich, atop the Iowa and national polls, outright proclaimed that “I am going to be the nominee.” A month later, he finished fourth in Iowa and then fourth a week later in New Hampshire before beginning his latest surge in South Carolina, followed closely by his Florida fade.

Analysts pointed to two key reasons that Gingrich keeps seesawing in the affections of Republican primary voters. While Romney is the face of a well- funded and -staffed campaign with “traditional fundamentals,” said Republican strategist Rob Collins, a partner at Purple Strategies, Gingrich is a effectively a one-man show. Collins compared the speaker’s campaign to Pets.com, the famed 90s dotcom company that had a hugely successful IPO based on hype and wildly optimistic projections before rapidly falling to earth and into bankruptcy. That leaves Gingrich “only as good as [his] last press release,” said Collins.

Dan Schnur, John McCain’s communications director on his 2000 campaign, said support for Gingrich’s campaign is inherently volatile. “Gingrich does best when he is building off a strong debate performance,” said Schnur, who called those performances “Gingrich’s only protection against the Romney’s paid media blitz.” By turning in two mediocre performances at the Florida debates, Gingirch again lost that protection.

In Iowa, nearly 50% of all the political ads that aired in the months before the caucuses were anti-Gingrich, according to a report from Bloomberg News, pouncing on the former speaker’s old consulting contracts with Freddie Mac and his deviations from the party line on health care and global warming. The speaker’s poll numbers collapsed, and Romney again began signaling “inevitability” by pivoting toward the general election and President Obama.

But after Gingrich rose up again in South Carolina, even the Iowa assault has seemed mild compared to the ongoing one in Florida. In the past few days, establishment figures across the conservative movement have attacked Gingrich, ranging from Bob Dole to Ann Coulter The front page of the Drudge Report seems to have turned into an extended arm of the Romney press shop, pumping out opposition research about how the former House Speaker criticized Ronald Reagan, lied in the previous debates and is generally unfit and unelectable. Romney surrogates have started freelancing in their efforts to score the snappiest anti-Gingrich one-liner, with John McCain saying Thursday, “I think we should send Newt Gingrich to the moon and Mitt Romney to the White House.” McCain then asked the audience: “Is that a good line? I just thought of it.”

Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic consultant who helped tear down Gingrich for Bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign, when the president tried to make the unpopular speaker into the face of the Republican party, said, “there is no Republican Party.” It’s been replaced, he said, by “a bunch of factions,” which he said opens up a space for Gingrich to run as “an anti-establishment candidate like Reagan, Nixon or Goldwater,” as Republican voters use the primary to work out what they want their party to be.

But in this primary season, Republicans seem to change their mind about their vision for the party on a weekly basis. Over the past 90 days, the dips and trades in Gingrich’s poll support have had more peaks and valleys than the pockmarked lunar surface of which he is so fond.

Gingrich has built the ultimate modern campaign, based entirely on the rhythms of political journalism. If he does not “win the morning” with an attention-grabbing sound bite, he has lost the day. After his weak debate performances here and again under heavy fire from Romney, Gingrich is conceding he’s likely to lose Florida but vows that he’ll remain in the race through the convention. But with no more debates for nearly a month for to sustain his fourth-time around insurgent phase, it will be tough for him to keep the show going, let alone orchestrate a fourth act as frontrunner. And even if he should pulls off another rise, his last three trips to the top suggest it’s a safe bet he won’t hold that ground.

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The Gingrich Equation

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Read more from the original source:
Mitt Romney Campaign Looks Past Florida Primary 2012

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Romney and Gingrich Scrap Amid Shifting Fortunes

NAPLES, Fla. (AP) — Mitt Romney's strength may be growing,
but he won't secure the Republican presidential nomination
Tuesday, even if he scores a convincing victory in Florida's primary.

His rivals have vowed to keep fighting well beyond the Jan. 31
election. But win or lose in Florida, the Romney machine is
already executing an aggressive multi-state strategy designed
to suffocate his opponents' chances as the GOP contest moves
forward. And some Republicans say it's time for Romney's rivals
to give up.

“By traditional measures, a big Florida win for Romney would
mean that this thing is just about wrapped up,” said Todd
Harris, a Washington-based Republican strategist with Florida
ties. “Most Republicans think it's time to stop the infighting
and start taking the campaign straight to President Obama.”

Florida polls showed that Newt Gingrich briefly surged into the
lead following his South Carolina victory just nine days ago.
That lead is gone, according to an NBC News/Marist poll
published Sunday. Romney now has support from 42 percent of
likely Florida primary voters, compared with 27 percent for the
former House speaker.

But even before he reclaimed the momentum in this rollercoaster
race, Romney's advisers were looking ahead.

There are seven elections in February, beginning with Nevada's
caucuses Saturday. A series of lower-profile contests —
including a non-binding Missouri caucus — come over the next
week in Colorado, Minnesota and Maine. They're followed
by a 17-day break, which ends with primaries in Arizona and
Michigan on Feb. 28.

The mid-month break, bookended by states considered favorable
to Romney, presents significant challenges for the other
candidates, who trail Romney in both money and organization.

“I think the biggest thing to keep an eye on is that
two-and-a-half-week down time between the 11th and the 28th,”
said Romney political director Rich Beeson. “If you don't have
momentum and resources coming into it, it's going to be hard to
have momentum and resources coming out of it.”

Romney has consistently dominated his opponents in fundraising,
reporting $19 million in his campaign account at the end of
December. And his campaign distributed paid staff on the ground
— months ago, in some cases — to bolster a growing network of
local supporters. They include a combined 380 Republican
officials across February voting states, eight members of
Congress among them.

Romney's advisers — and unaffiliated Republicans — see a
widening path to victory beyond Florida.

“A lot of the contests are states he won four years ago. Some
of them are big primary states like Michigan. Arizona, we
didn't get to in 2008, but we think that's good, fertile
territory for us,” said Romney senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom.
“Other states — Colorado, Minnesota, Maine — these are all
contests we won in the past, where Mitt still retains a strong
base of support.”

The optimism is backed by reality on the ground.

While his opponents have struggled to compete in one state at a
time, Romney has had paid staff in Nevada since June. He has
already begun advertising there. More recently, the campaign
dispatched staff to Colorado and Arizona. Top New Hampshire
surrogates are headed to Maine in the coming days.

And Romney is scheduled to campaign across Nevada, Colorado and
Minnesota before next Saturday, according to Fehrnstrom.

He's not the only one looking ahead. Texas Rep. Ron Paul is
skipping Florida altogether in favor of the less-expensive
February states. Rick Santorum — who's dealing with his
daughter's illness — this weekend abandoned plans to campaign
in Florida in favor of Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado and
Nevada.

But building momentum in those states alone will be difficult.
And Republicans with no stake in the campaign agree that Romney
has tremendous advantages.

“You've got one campaign with vastly superior resources across
the board,” said Washington-based Republican strategist Phil
Musser, adding that fundraising will be an increasingly
daunting challenge for Romney's competitors should he win
Florida.

Outside help from so-called super PACs could be ending as well.
Gingrich's recent rise was aided by a wealthy supporter who
recently funneled $10 million to an outside group dedicated to
helping him.

“For super donors, the romantic period is over,” Musser said
before offering a warning. “If we've learned anything from this
cycle, it's that there aren't many crystal balls that are
clear.”

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Romney machine looks past Florida

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GOP rivals pursue Hispanic voters

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Michelle Obama Teams With Goya Foods to Bring 'Mi Plato' to Hispanic Families

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Consider these rules for Dem primary

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In South Carolina, Newt Gingrich Looks to Win His Own Way

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For South Carolinians, No Escape From the Messages

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South Carolina: In a Pivotal Primary, Gingrich Looks to Win His Way

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No Escape From Politics for These South Carolina Voters

www.youtube.com/watch?v=48s7qz5rFzA

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WTS (Waiting to Surrogate) Vlog 2 Part 2 – Video

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Five Ways Candidates Can Use Their Kids To Get Votes

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Candidates Use Their Kids To Nab Votes

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Would-Be First Ladies Bolster Husbands-In-Chief

Excerpt from:

You Gets No Respect: The Vanity of Surrogacy